ASTANA, August 19. /Dunyo IA/. Kazakhstan has begun its harvest campaign amid a hot and dry summer, which could lead to a decline in wheat production following the record figures recorded in 2025, reports Dunyo IA correspondent, citing “Kazinform.”

In June, temperatures in most regions of Kazakhstan were 1–5°C above the climatic norm, while temperatures in the south reached as high as 43°C. In August, atmospheric drought is forecast in parts of the West Kazakhstan, Aktobe, Atyrau, Zhetisu, Zhambyl, Turkestan and Kyzylorda regions. At the same time, conditions remain uneven: rain is expected in the northern regions, while intense heat is continuing in the south and west.

So far, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Agriculture assesses more than 99% of grain and oilseed crops as being in good or satisfactory condition. Some 15.3% of grain crops have been harvested, with average yields at 15.8 centners per hectare. However, about 10% of planted areas in the Pavlodar region are already in poor condition, while experts report significant losses in some areas of the Pavlodar, Karaganda and East Kazakhstan regions.

One specialist, speaking to “Kazinform”, also forecasts a wheat harvest of about 13 million tons, compared with 20.3 million in 2025. The Kazakh Grain Union, however, says there will be enough grain to meet domestic consumption, processing and export needs.

Kazakhstan’s harvest is particularly important for Uzbekistan. According to Uzbekistan’s Agency of Statistics, the country imported 4.1 million tons of wheat from Kazakhstan in 2025, while deliveries of Kazakh soft and durum wheat reached 4.6 million tons from September 2025 to June 2026. Kazakhstan also supplied 399,800 tons of the 422,600 tons of wheat flour imported by Uzbekistan in 2025.

The dependence also extends to other agricultural products. From January through July 2025, Uzbekistan imported 42,300 tons of corn from Kazakhstan, while 163,300 tons of sunflower oil were imported during the first eight months of the year. Therefore, lower yields in Kazakhstan could primarily affect the availability and cost of grain, flour and some other products on the Uzbek market.

The final impact will become clear after the main harvest phase, which begins in Kazakhstan in the third week of August. Even if the harvest declines, experts do not expect a wheat shortage. However, hot and dry weather could reduce grain quality and alter supply volumes for domestic consumers and export markets, including Uzbekistan.